Overview

• Pope Francis's death has triggered worldwide mourning and a surge in betting on his successor through platforms like Polymarket.
• Prediction markets have seen over $3 million in wagers, with Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle leading as potential candidates.
• Bettors are speculating not only on the next pope's identity but also on his continent of origin, papal name, and the timing of the conclave decision.
• Historically, papal betting was banned in 1591 by Pope Gregory XIV but became permissible after the repeal of the ban in 1918.
• Past prediction markets have struggled to accurately forecast conclave outcomes, as seen in 2013 when Jorge Bergoglio was elected despite low odds.