Overview

• Pope Francis passed away on April 21, 2025, with the conclave to elect his successor expected to convene between 15 and 20 days later, though the exact date is yet to be announced.
• Betting on the next pope has become one of the most popular markets of 2025, with bookmakers and crypto platforms like Polymarket processing millions of dollars in wagers.
• Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin leads betting markets with 9/4 odds (~28% chance), followed closely by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle at 3/1 odds.
• Historical unpredictability surrounds the conclave, as secrecy and lack of insider information mean betting trends often reflect speculation and media narratives rather than accurate forecasts.
• Cultural phenomena like the Oscar-winning film 'Conclave' and social media discussions have amplified public interest in the papal election, further fueling the betting frenzy.