Overview
- The won last closed at 1,440.3 per dollar after a near 34-won one-day swing that briefly took the rate below 1,450, the sharpest daily move in more than three years.
- Industry data from 12 major investment banks put the three-month average forecast at 1,440, with projections spanning HSBC’s 1,400 to Nomura and Standard Chartered’s 1,460.
- Longer-term views remain dispersed, ranging from Nomura’s 1,380 over 12 months to Barclays’ path pointing toward about 1,490, reflecting uncertainty over the currency’s new equilibrium.
- Analysts cite structural dollar demand from large overseas allocations by individuals and the National Pension Service, while officials roll out expanded FX hedging and tax incentives to temper volatility.
- The IMF estimates the won’s fair value near 1,330, underscoring a valuation gap as Korea posts a record-high annual average around 1,422 and policymakers prioritize exchange-rate stability.