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Global August PMIs Paint Patchy Recovery as Cost Pressures Rise

Rising input and output price pass‑through from energy and shipping is increasing the pressure on central banks to tighten policy further.

Overview

  • The private‑sector PMI releases on Thursday, Sept. 3 showed a mixed picture with strong readings in the UAE, India and parts of Spain and Italy while France contracted and Germany hovered just below 50.
  • China’s surveys diverged sharply as RatingDog’s private PMI showed services expansion at 51.4 and a composite 52.1 while the official NBS non‑manufacturing and manufacturing indices remained at or below 50.
  • S&P Global economists flagged near‑record pass‑through of higher input costs into selling prices in Japan and the eurozone, a development that strengthens the case for ECB tightening at its Sept. 10 meeting and raises the chance of a BOJ move later in September.
  • Labour trends vary: India’s services hiring hit a 15‑month high, the UAE non‑oil sector reported rapid job and output gains, Germany added staff for the first time in eight months, and Japan saw modest employment growth despite export weakness.
  • Markets are watching central bank calendars, currency and commodity moves and the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy and shipping costs as the next drivers of policy and trade flows.