Overview

• The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 concludes tropical warm‑water coral reefs have likely crossed a thermal threshold near 1.2°C, with current warming about 1.4°C and a greater than 99% chance of large‑scale, largely irreversible loss.
• Authors say many reefs would die even if warming is limited to 1.5°C, with meaningful recovery expected only if global temperatures return to around 1.0°C or lower.
• Researchers project the 1.5°C level will likely be exceeded in the coming years to roughly the mid‑2030s, entering a high‑risk phase with elevated chances of cascading impacts across Earth systems.
• Other vulnerable elements identified include the Amazon rainforest, Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, though exact thresholds and response times remain uncertain and can span centuries.
• Compiled by roughly 160 scientists across dozens of institutions, the report urges immediate political action ahead of COP30 in Belém and highlights positive social and technological tipping points such as cheaper renewables and rising electric‑vehicle adoption.