Overview
- The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 concludes tropical warm‑water reefs likely breached a thermal threshold near 1.2°C, with current warming about 1.4°C.
- It estimates a greater than 99% chance of large‑scale, largely irreversible reef loss even if warming is stabilized at 1.5°C.
- Authors warn that other tipping elements are closer than thought, including Amazon dieback near 1.5–2°C, potential AMOC weakening or collapse below about 2°C, and accelerating ice‑sheet risks.
- The assessment underscores heavy socioeconomic stakes, as reefs underpin biodiversity, fisheries, coastal protection and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people.
- Some specialists highlight evidence of regional resilience and possible refugia, while the report urges scaling positive societal tipping points such as cheaper renewables and rising EV adoption to cut emissions quickly.