Overview
- The OECD pegs world growth near 2.9% next year as the IMF warns risks are tilted to the downside despite 2025’s resilience.
- In the U.S., a 4.3% Q3 GDP surge was powered by AI-related investment concentrated in big tech even as unemployment rose to 4.6% and hiring clustered in health care.
- Economists caution that an AI market correction could erode consumption and strain parts of the financial system, raising recession risk into 2026.
- The average U.S. tariff climbed to roughly 17.9% under 2025 measures, with a Supreme Court ruling on presidential tariff authority expected in 2026 and trade frictions with China largely unresolved.
- Cooling inflation is allowing rate cuts to proceed in several economies, yet elevated public debt and China’s property-sector drag keep financial conditions vulnerable.