Overview

• Polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are now losing 370 billion tonnes of ice per year, contributing 4.5 mm annually to sea level rise, far exceeding earlier model projections.
• Even if warming is limited to 1.5°C, several meters of sea level rise are likely over centuries, threatening 230 million people living in low-lying coastal areas.
• Current climate policies predict a temperature increase of 2.5–2.9°C by 2100, significantly overshooting the Paris Agreement's target and exacerbating ice loss.
• Under a temporary 3°C overshoot scenario, glaciers could lose an additional 11–16% of their mass, with recovery taking centuries to millennia, even if temperatures later decrease.
• Experts emphasize that rapid emissions reductions are critical to preserving glacier mass and mitigating long-term sea level impacts, as delays will cement irreversible damage.