Overview
- The Giants and Raiders are both 2-12, with New York currently ahead on the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker heading into Week 16.
- Forecasts lean toward Las Vegas finishing worst, with ESPN’s FPI around 39.8% and the New York Times model near 47% for the Raiders to land the top pick.
- Prediction market Kalshi prices the Raiders at roughly 71% for the No. 1 pick, with the Giants and Titans trailing and the Browns and Jets considered outside shots.
- The Giants–Raiders game in Week 17 is the single biggest swing factor, and the Review-Journal reports a Raiders loss there would lift their top-pick odds to about 71% while a win would cut them to near 12%.
- Cleveland (3-11) and the Jets (3-11) remain wild cards because of favorable tiebreaker positions, with the Jets currently holding a better strength of schedule than Las Vegas and the Browns graded as contenders by both ESPN and the Times.