Overview

• Early October forecasts cannot predict conditions for December 24, so analysts point to historical probabilities rather than a fixed outlook.
• Major lowland cities such as Frankfurt, Bremen and Cologne face only about a 5–15% chance of a snow cover at Christmas.
• Rostock on the Baltic coast is around 20%, mid-altitude regions typically range from 20–30%, and Munich and Passau are estimated at roughly 30–40%.
• High Alpine elevations above about 800–1000 meters are near certain to have a closed snow cover, though lower mountain areas can see thaws interrupt snowpack.
• Multi-decade trends show white Christmases have become less frequent due to milder holiday periods, while folk rules and seasonal signals like La Niña are not reliable guarantees.