Overview
- The Kultusministerkonferenz’s updated model projects a national pupil peak of about 11.54 million in 2029 followed by a fall to roughly 10.58 million by 2040, a reduction of about 694,000 from 2025.
- KMK says the revision reflects markedly lower birth cohorts since 2021, with births in 2025 recorded at the lowest level since 1946.
- Projections show strong regional gaps with west German large states facing a modest drop of about 3.6 percent by 2040 while east German large states are set to lose roughly 21 percent of pupils.
- Secondary and vocational schools are expected to reach their maximum student numbers later than primary schools, around the mid‑2030s, shifting when and where staffing and training needs will peak.
- KMK and state ministries stress these are model scenarios sensitive to future fertility, migration and schooling changes, and unions and state ministers warn the numbers will force decisions on school closures, teacher deployment and funding for full‑time and vocational programmes.