Overview

• Merz’s cabinet advanced a first package that guarantees a 48 percent replacement rate through 2031, expands Mütterrente entitlements and promotes an Aktivrente with tax‑free additional earnings reported up to €2,000 per month.
• Economist Axel Börsch-Supan estimates the guarantee could exceed €500 billion in costs by 2045, and the Deutsche Rentenversicherung projects about €5 billion in annual costs from the Mütterrente expansion.
• DIW and the Bundesbank doubt that the Aktivrente will significantly raise employment among older workers, with DIW noting roughly 75,000 extra workers would be needed to offset likely take‑up by those who would have worked anyway.
• The Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft warns of at least €2.8 billion in yearly tax revenue losses from the Aktivrente, and Monika Schnitzer cautions that social insurance finances are not future‑proof without deeper reform.
• Public pressure and politics diverge as an Allensbach poll finds 84 percent expecting a higher retirement age and 78 percent expecting lower future pensions, while NRW minister Karl‑Josef Laumann rejects proposals for a “Rente mit 70,” and experts highlight that delaying retirement under Flexirente can substantially lift individual benefits.