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Germany’s Pension Package Teeters as Dissent Grows and Expert Analyses Diverge

A make‑or‑break coalition meeting on Thursday will determine whether the pension bill proceeds.

Overview

  • The cabinet bill would legally hold the statutory pension level near 48% until 2031 and add measures such as Mütterrente, Frühstartrente and Aktivrente, but up to 18 young CDU/CSU MPs threaten to vote it down, endangering the majority.
  • An IW study finds roughly 40.6–41% of German public spending goes to social protection, higher than the Nordic average, intensifying a debate over fiscal priorities during budget week.
  • Twenty‑two prominent economists publicly urge withdrawing the bill over intergenerational costs, while a new IMK analysis argues younger cohorts gain higher pension ‘returns’ and estimates an added federal burden of about 0.3% of GDP.
  • Employer chief Rainer Dulger says stabilising pensions already costs about €350 million per day and warns that locking in 48% plus an expanded Mütterrente could add roughly €200 billion over 15 years.
  • The Bundestag begins final 2026 budget debates for a €524.5 billion plan financed by higher borrowing, with polling showing a plurality opposed to the pension package as coalition leaders hunt for a compromise this week.