Overview
- The cabinet-approved pension report forecasts a 3.73% increase from July and projects cumulative rises of roughly 45% by 2039, with reserves at about €51.9 billion.
- Contribution rates are expected to hold at 18.6% through 2027 before rising to 19.8% in 2028, about 20.1% by 2030 and roughly 21.2% by 2039.
- Eighteen young Union MPs threaten to withhold votes in December, raising the prospect the coalition lacks a majority as Die Linke weighs conditional support.
- A small negotiation team led by Kanzleramtschef Thorsten Frei with Björn Böhning and Alexander Dobrindt is working toward a compromise, with a Rentenkommission due to deliver proposals by summer 2026.
- Employers and economists, including Martin Werding, warn the 48% line is fiscally unsound with cost estimates near €145 billion through 2040, citing demographic strain from 13.4 million baby boomers retiring by 2039.