Overview
- The Ifo business climate index fell to 88.1 in November from 88.4, driven by a sharp deterioration in expectations, especially in manufacturing, even as assessments of current conditions edged up.
- Official data confirmed zero quarterly growth in Q3, with exports down 0.7% and private consumption falling 0.3%, while equipment investment rose modestly.
- Ifo’s survey of roughly 9,000 companies signals only a marginal Q4 pickup of about 0.1%, pointing to a limited near-term recovery.
- Sector signals diverged as services and tourism improved, transport and logistics weakened, retail reported a disappointing start to the Christmas season, and construction remained constrained by weak demand.
- Economists expect a more noticeable upturn in 2026 from planned fiscal investment, though several warn slow implementation and funds replacing rather than adding to spending could blunt the stimulus.