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Germany’s New Military Service Plan Faces Police Recruitment Fears and Fresh Pressure to Tighten the Law

A leaked army estimate of far higher troop needs has sharpened the push to revise the draft before parliamentary debate.

Overview

  • The cabinet’s draft Wehrdienst-Modernisierungsgesetz would start questionnaire-based registration with the 2026 cohort and make medical screening mandatory for men from 1 July 2027, but it still requires Bundestag approval.
  • The police union warns the Bundeswehr’s new recruitment tools could siphon applicants and urges equal incentives and a stronger youth strategy for police forces.
  • CDU/CSU seeks an automatic fallback to conscription if voluntary numbers fall short and wants Bundeswehr letters to reference alternative social and civic services, a change under interministerial discussion.
  • Outgoing army inspector Alfons Mais privately estimated the Heer must grow from about 62,000 to roughly 150,000 active soldiers by 2035, with around 45,000 posts needed by 2029, highlighting a larger gap than previously signaled.
  • Implementation hurdles persist, including only about 2,000 full-time basic-training instructors, capacity for roughly 5,000 new recruits by 2026, strained barracks infrastructure, and the need to process responses from some 350,000 18-year-old men annually.