Overview
- BND president Martin Jäger said on October 5 that Vladimir Putin is "beyond the point" where he could halt the attack on Ukraine without risking his domestic power, an unusually explicit public assessment by Germany’s foreign intelligence service.
- Many Western services and European think tanks partly back Jäger’s reading that the war is tied to Kremlin survival while some US analysts argue repression, elite control or a calculation for a war of attrition could also explain Moscow’s persistence.
- German security experts warn of a growing shadowwar threat that would target power grids, undersea data cables, communications links and supply chains through sabotage, disinformation and covert attacks.
- Domestic political pressure in Germany from parties pressing to end Ukraine aid has intensified but analysts such as Carlo Masala say withdrawing support would make Germany more vulnerable to Russian coercion, not safer.
- Berlin has responded with stepped-up intelligence cooperation with Kyiv, large drone deliveries and military tests, a set of signals that officials and analysts say point to a longer-term policy of deterrence, resilience and civilian preparedness.