Overview
- Trade group BWP expects about 300,000 heat pumps sold in 2025, more than 50% above last year, after roughly 255,000 units were registered by October with monthly sales topping 30,000 in September and October.
- BWP raised its 2026 forecast from 350,000 to 430,000 units and says sales could exceed 530,000 if the political framework stays reliable and the electricity–gas price relation improves.
- The association frames the surge as consumers shifting away from fossil heating, with BWP’s Martin Sabel calling heat pumps the preferred technology and warning that wavering rules deter investment.
- A YouGov survey for 1Komma5° finds nearly half of respondents likely to choose a heat pump, with lower willingness in eastern Germany (39% vs. 44% in the west) and stronger interest among younger cohorts (~49% vs. 36% for those born 1965–1980).
- High upfront costs remain a hurdle, with average installation at about €12,600 after subsidies in Germany versus roughly €7,000 in France, though analyses indicate heat pumps undercut new gas systems after around eleven years and watchdogs warn to avoid hidden 'bauseits' costs that can push quotes to €29,000–€62,000.