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Germany’s Gastronomy Slump Deepens as Sector Warns of Another Year of Losses

Operators expect a planned 2026 VAT cut to ease pressure, though few foresee cheaper menus.

Overview

  • Official data show real hospitality revenues fell about 3.7–4.1% in the first half of 2025, leaving turnover well below 2019 levels.
  • Dehoga reports July net sales down 9.3% year on year, with nearly 40% of businesses expecting losses in 2025 and bookings for late summer described as weak.
  • Restaurant prices have risen more than 26% since January 2022, while diners trade down, skip courses and visit less often.
  • Cost pressures remain intense, with labor expenses up roughly 34% since 2022 and food, beverages and energy around 30%, and 72% of firms delaying needed investments.
  • The coalition plans to cut VAT on dine‑in meals to 7% from January 1, 2026, but only 44% of surveyed operators expect an improved price‑performance for customers and economists question the fiscal cost and pass‑through.