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Germany’s Economy Flat in Q3, Dodging Recession as Exports Slump

Falling exports offset rising equipment investment, with forecasts pointing to only a modest 2026 recovery.

Overview

  • Preliminary Destatis data show GDP at 0.0% quarter on quarter in Q3 2025 after a revised −0.2% in Q2, with output up 0.3% year on year.
  • Investment in equipment increased while exports declined, leaving overall growth unchanged; Destatis will publish full details on November 25.
  • Economists highlight headwinds from high U.S. tariffs, softer auto and chemical demand, and intensifying competition from China.
  • Labour-market weakness is emerging, with employment down by 21,000 in September for a fifth straight monthly drop.
  • The government expects only a minimal 2025 expansion and about 1.3% growth in 2026 driven mainly by state spending, while the IMF projects closer to 0.9%.