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Germany’s Autumn 2025 Outlook: Unusual Warmth Ahead as Forecasters Flag Dryness Risk

Model-based outlooks warn of a precipitation shortfall despite popular ‘golden autumn’ expectations.

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Der 1. September bestimmt laut einer Bauernregel das Wetter des ganzen Monats.

Overview

  • Recent forecasts point to above-average temperatures through September and into October, with nights staying unusually mild even in November.
  • Meteorological guidance signals a developing rainfall deficit from September that could intensify into November, stressing soils, rivers and groundwater.
  • Dominik Jung projects a generally normal-to-warm season with a potentially golden October before cooler November conditions, including possible first snow in higher terrain.
  • Karsten Brandt expects the meteorological autumn to be too dry, underscoring concerns that brief showers will not offset the broader moisture shortfall.
  • Traditional sources such as the Hundertjähriger Kalender describe 2025 as a warm ‘Venusjahr’ with specific sunny periods, a wetter narrative that conflicts with the drier model-based outlook.