Overview
- Five votes across Baden-Württemberg (8 Mar), Rhineland-Palatinate (22 Mar), Saxony-Anhalt (6 Sep), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sep) and Berlin (20 Sep) will shape whether the AfD attains state-level power.
- Surveys show the AfD near 40% in Saxony-Anhalt and 38% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with scenarios discussed that range from AfD-led minority cabinets to a single-party government.
- AfD lead candidates Ulrich Siegmund in Saxony-Anhalt and Leif-Erik Holm in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are pitching government capability and courting parts of the CDU.
- Commentary reports renewed pressure on the CDU’s ‘Brandmauer,’ with figures like Peter Tauber and Andreas Rödder cited as favoring tactical leverage, while others such as NRW interior minister Herbert Reul warn cooperation would split the party.
- In western contests, the AfD polls lower and remains unlikely to join governments, with Baden-Württemberg expected to hinge on CDU versus Greens and Rhineland-Palatinate on CDU versus SPD, while Berlin polls show the Left ahead and the AfD around 16%.