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14h ago

Germany’s 16th Population Projection Foresees Rapid Ageing, Smaller Workforce by 2070

Destatis’ new scenarios point to rapid ageing, with rising pressure across pensions, labor supply and long-term care.

Im Jahr 2070 werden in Deutschland laut einer Statistikern deutlich weniger Menschen leben als heute. Bei einer moderaten Entwicklung der demografischen Faktoren Geburten, Lebenserwartung und Zuwanderung wird die Zahl dann unter 75 Millionen liegen.
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Deutschland schrumpft bis 2070 deutlich, was große soziale Herausforderungen bringt.

Overview

  • One quarter of the population will be 67 or older by 2035, with the 67+ cohort reaching 20.5–21.3 million by 2038, an increase of 3.8–4.5 million versus today.
  • The working-age group (20–66) declines from 51.2 million in 2024 to about 45.3 million under high migration, 41.2 million with moderate migration, or 37.1 million with low migration by 2070.
  • Germany’s total population in 2070 is 74.7 million under moderate assumptions, with a range of 63.9–86.5 million across scenarios and lower upper bounds than the 2022 projection due to reduced births and net migration.
  • Care needs are set to intensify as the 80+ population rises from 6.1 million in 2024 to roughly 8.5–9.8 million by 2050, while the old-age dependency ratio climbs from 33 today to 43–61 by 2070 depending on the scenario.
  • Regional paths diverge: east German large-area states shrink by 14–30% by 2070, west German large-area states at best hold steady, and the city-states can grow under medium or high net migration.