Overview

• Registered unemployment rose by 46,000 in August to 3.025 million, the first breach of the three‑million mark since 2015, lifting the jobless rate to 6.4%.
• After typical summer effects are stripped out, unemployment edged down by 9,000 to 2.961 million, and the IAB reported early signs of stabilization in its barometer.
• Real wages increased 1.9% year over year in Q2 as nominal pay rose 4.1% against 2.1% inflation, marking a ninth consecutive quarterly gain, though WSI says purchasing power remains below Q2 2019.
• Wage gains were uneven, with the lowest‑paid full‑time fifth up 6.5% versus 2.5% for the highest‑paid; finance and technical services saw +7.6% nominal, while energy recorded a 0.2% decline.
• Retail sales fell in July (real −1.5%, nominal −1.0%), and a deep industrial slump with about 114,000 jobs lost by mid‑year contrasts with relative resilience in construction and some services as coalition leaders discuss tax incentives, energy relief and deregulation.