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Germany Thaws as Models Flag Late-January Cold Risk

Forecasters label the warmth a brief interlude, with ensembles increasing the likelihood of a frost return toward the end of the month.

Overview

  • DWD reports a west–southwest flow has pushed mild maritime air nationwide with highs widely between 6 and 15 degrees, and no short‑term snow regime in sight.
  • Southwest regions reach locally 15 degrees around the Kaiserstuhl and NRW sees 10 to 12 degrees, though nights turn colder this weekend with patches of frost and fog.
  • Overfreezing has triggered accidents in northern states, avalanche danger is considerable above roughly 1800 meters in the Bavarian Alps, and water authorities expect only local river rises without a large‑scale flood.
  • ECMWF ensemble output shows a growing cold cluster after about 20 January, indicating an elevated chance of subzero conditions in the final third of the month.
  • Some deterministic runs, including GFS, depict very cold scenarios with around −10 to −14 degrees at altitude and severe night frost, but experts emphasize large model divergence and uncertain snow potential.