Overview
- From January 1, fuel and heating suppliers buy emissions certificates at auctions, with demand determining the CO₂ price within a 55–65 euros per tonne corridor and extra certificates available at 68 euros in case of shortages.
- Consumer pass-through this year is expected to be modest, with estimates of roughly up to three cents more per liter for petrol, slightly more for diesel, around three cents per liter for heating oil, and about 0.3 cents per kWh for natural gas.
- The German government intends to keep the corridor in place for 2027 before replacing the national scheme with the EU-wide ETS II in 2028, where prices will be set fully by the market.
- Outlooks diverge for the post-2028 period, with ZEW’s Achim Wambach warning of scenarios up to about 200 euros per tonne and IW’s Thilo Schaefer judging such spikes unlikely due to potential EU interventions to add or advance allowances.
- Lower global oil prices at the start of 2026, linked to U.S. signals about reintegrating Venezuelan supply, are easing pump price pressure and could offset some CO₂-related increases.