Overview
- The Deutscher Wetterdienst says a clear north–south divide will hold through the first week of September with the south warming to roughly 26–31 °C and the north staying cooler, wet and gusty.
- DWD warns of showers, thunderstorms and strong to stormy wind gusts for northern coastal and adjacent areas later in the week, with coastal winds likely to be strongest.
- Some meteorologists and private model runs flag isolated spikes of 33–35 °C in the Oberrhein and parts of the southwest, but the DWD and other services show lower, more limited peaks and model spread is large.
- Long-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and NOAA leans toward a generally warmer-than-average September, a pattern that would worsen groundwater deficits and keep wildfire risk elevated if dry conditions persist.
- Forecast confidence falls after the first week, so the timing and size of any further warm pulses remain uncertain and people should expect a mix of warm, dry days in the south and unsettled, windy weather in the north.