Overview
- The government has reaffirmed a schedule to bring a pension bill to the cabinet in 2026 and seek Bundestag approval in the first quarter of 2027, putting pressure on coalition talks over final design and transition rules.
- Central commission proposals under consideration would remove the penalty‑free early retirement after 45 contribution years and create a new partly funded 'Kapitalrente' with an estimated two percent extra contribution to build a central capital stock.
- Public resistance is strong with a ZDF‑Politbarometer showing about 74 percent oppose ending the 45‑year Abschlagsfrei, and politicians in the SPD and several eastern CDU state leaders have signaled objections that complicate coalition consensus.
- Economists at IMK and WSI warn that building a capital fund while still paying current pensions would create a double burden on workers and could push statutory contribution rates toward roughly 22 percent by 2032 if no offsetting measures are found.
- A parallel Pflegeversicherung package advanced by cabinet includes a confirmed rise in the childless surcharge to 0.9 percent from January 2027, and providers plus individual cases such as a 101‑year‑old whose Pflegegeld was stopped show practical and legal implementation risks that need fixing before the changes take effect.