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Germany Sees Short Mild Spell as Forecasts Point to Possible Late-January Cold Rebound

Forecast confidence remains low given reliance on a potential Scandinavian blocking high.

Overview

  • DWD expects slightly milder, unsettled weather in Berlin and Brandenburg, with freezing rain likely to produce widespread ice overnight into Thursday and patches of dense fog.
  • Official forecasts show regional contrasts, with rain and cloud in northern and western areas and notably milder, sunnier intervals in parts of Baden-Württemberg.
  • Meteorologists and several model runs indicate cold air could return from the east later this month, raising the risk of multi-day frost particularly in eastern and northeastern regions.
  • Analyses highlight significant model divergence on timing and intensity, with conventional outputs and AI-driven models split over whether a Russian high shifts toward Scandinavia to channel colder air.
  • Some expert outlooks flag a low-probability scenario of severe cold near minus 14 degrees around January 28 in parts of NRW, while other guidance remains less extreme and stresses uncertainty.