Overview
- In July the Bundestag replaced the Gebäudeenergiegesetz with the Gebäudemodernisierungsgesetz, removing the 65% renewables rule for new heaters and allowing new oil and gas boilers while introducing a phased green‑gas quota that starts at 10% in 2029 and targets 60% by 2040.
- KfW's new subsidy rules took effect last week, cutting eligible cost caps and steadily lowering bonus rates for heat pumps, which reduces near‑term financial support for low‑carbon heating options.
- A model study by the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft published on July 27 projects annual operating costs for a typical gas‑heated apartment could nearly double by 2040, with about €643 of the extra cost tied to the mandatory green‑gas blending, €184 to higher gas‑network charges, and €44 to CO₂ pricing in the study's baseline.
- Municipalities and heat‑network developers warn the law and faster subsidy phase‑out weaken planning certainty for Wärmenetze because owners can opt for new individual gas systems, which lowers expected connection rates and raises the risk that district‑heating projects will be delayed or become uneconomic.
- The practical impact depends on future supplies and prices of biomethane and hydrogen, so analysts say policymakers must align legal rules and funding quickly to avoid higher bills for tenants and stalled long‑term investments in local heat infrastructure.