Overview
- A government draft reported by officials shows growth forecasts lifted to 1.3% for 2026 and 1.1% for 2027 from April’s much lower projections, with the numbers drawn from an internal update rather than a final release.
- Officials and a person familiar with the draft say the upgrade is driven mainly by unexpectedly strong output in the first half of the year rather than a broad pickup in household spending or business investment.
- The government attributes roughly a 1 percentage point boost to GDP from fiscal measures introduced so far and expects the public sector to remain a key growth driver going forward.
- Despite the higher near-term outlook, sources warn private consumption and corporate investment are still sluggish and persistent structural weaknesses make the recovery fragile.
- The draft figures are provisional and an official government forecast is scheduled for publication next week, with analysts saying the revisions could influence inflation and central bank policy if the strength persists.