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Germany Meets 2025 Climate Target, but Emissions Cuts Slow and Risks Mount

Analysts warn steeper annual savings are now needed to hit 2030 goals.

Overview

  • Preliminary calculations by Agora Energiewende put 2025 greenhouse‑gas emissions at about 640 million tonnes CO2e, a 1.5% decline that keeps within the national cap.
  • Emissions rose in buildings and transport, pointing to missed EU effort‑sharing targets despite broader progress in power and industry.
  • Agora estimates Germany must cut emissions by roughly 36 million tonnes per year from 2026 to stay aligned with the 2030 pathway.
  • Shortfalls in the problem sectors could require buying additional allowances by 2030 costing up to €34 billion if policies do not change.
  • DEHSt reports record €21.4 billion in 2025 revenue from EU and national carbon markets, with EU permits averaging €73.86 per tonne and national €55, funding the Climate and Transformation Fund and with national auctions slated to begin at Leipzig’s EEX in July.