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Germany Jobless Count Set to Top 3 Million as IAB Gauge Turns Positive

The IAB’s forward indicator turned positive, signaling agencies expect the rise in joblessness to halt.

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Overview

  • The IAB labour‑market barometer rose to 100.7 in August, with the unemployment component at 100.5 and the employment component at 100.9, according to IAB expert Enzo Weber.
  • The Federal Employment Agency will publish August data on Friday, and forecasters expect registered unemployment to exceed three million for the first time in a decade after July’s 2.979 million.
  • Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the second quarter, a setback cited by analysts as a factor keeping hiring weak, with the industrial sector still under strain.
  • A pronounced skills mismatch persists, as about 80% of advertised jobs target workers with vocational qualifications while roughly two‑thirds of Bürgergeld recipients lack them.
  • The federal government plans reforms to Bürgergeld that increase obligations and support, with about €1 billion in additional Jobcenter funding for integration measures next year.