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Germany Heads for Near-Record December Warmth as Forecasts Slash White-Christmas Odds

Updated NOAA and ECMWF guidance favors a sustained west–southwest flow that keeps temperatures well above average.

Overview

  • New station highs include a roughly 12 °C December night in Bremen, with mountain sites such as Hohenpeißenberg also posting exceptional values, and the month currently ranking second-warmest since 1881.
  • CFS and ECMWF runs now project positive anomalies of about 3 to 4 degrees through at least the third Advent, signaling low probabilities for a prolonged cold spell or widespread holiday snowfall.
  • The DWD reports generally mild days but has issued level‑1 alerts for overnight frost and areas of dense fog in parts of Bavaria.
  • While Europe stays unusually mild, northeastern parts of the United States and eastern Canada are experiencing severe cold and frequent snow under a contrasting jet‑stream setup.
  • Some outlets note a brief late‑week cool‑down with localized frost, yet forecasters see no clear pattern shift before Christmas and stress uncertainty for the period after the holidays.