Overview
- The Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) warns of an unsteady weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms, including localized heavy rain, hail and strong gusts that are most likely on Sunday in regions such as Hesse.
- Multiple meteorologists and ensemble model runs now show an increased probability of a third heatwave from late July into early August, with many forecasts pointing to multi‑day Wüstentage (≥35°C) and partly tropical nights (≥20°C) in western and southwestern Germany.
- Some operational runs, notably a recent GFS output, produce extreme outliers near 40–42°C for early August, but experts repeatedly caution that forecasts beyond seven to ten days are trend‑based and subject to large uncertainty.
- Very dry soils and an unusually warm Mediterranean Sea are flagged as amplifiers that can boost daytime peak temperatures, raise wildfire danger and reduce nighttime cooling, increasing heat stress for people, crops and infrastructure.
- Authorities and residents should prepare for a two‑phase threat: immediate convective hazards this weekend followed by a likely rebound to sustained heat from next week that could trigger health, water and fire‑safety impacts if model trends hold.