Overview
- A preliminary trend released Friday by Agora Energiewende estimates Germany will emit about 635 million tonnes of CO2‑equivalents in 2026, roughly 10 million tonnes above the legal cap of 625 million tonnes.
- Agora reports emissions fell only slightly in the first half of 2026 to 327 million tonnes, a 7 Mt drop year‑on‑year, and cautions that the modest fall reflects temporary shocks rather than stronger structural progress.
- The think tank says a fossil‑fuel price crisis linked to disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and a rebound in industrial output—notably a 9% rise in iron and steel production—helped offset gains from heat pumps and electric vehicles.
- The federal Environment Ministry has called the estimates premature and noted the Umweltbundesamt will publish official 2026 figures by mid‑March 2027 while the government implements March climate measures intended to help close the gap.
- Beyond the headline numbers, Agora estimates about €7.4 billion in extra fossil‑fuel import costs and experts warn that without faster structural policies Germany could face a larger cumulative budget overshoot to 2030 that would legally force tougher action.