Overview
- Mid‑June reporting of an Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) analysis raised the projected 2036 gap to about 4.3 million workers, roughly 1.3 million more than the institute estimated in 2024.
- The IW links the revision to the full retirement of large babyboomer cohorts and a weak pipeline of young entrants, with only about 9.8 million people expected to reach working age toward 2036.
- The study uses updated Statistisches Bundesamt population data that foresee Germany’s population falling toward roughly 81.1 million by 2045 and the Erwerbspersonenpotenzial dropping from ~55 million in 2025 to ~51.2 million in 2036.
- The IW blames sharply lower net migration, which it terms a 'Migrationswende', and warns that policy steps such as stepped‑up skilled‑worker recruitment, faster visa and qualification recognition, higher participation and longer per‑person working hours are needed now.
- The institute’s long‑term risk picture is uncertain and uneven because short‑term firm surveys from ifo show current skill shortages are moderate while eastern states are forecast to suffer the largest workforce declines.