Overview
- Forecasters say the hottest days will be Friday and Saturday, with widespread highs of 31–38°C and isolated peaks near 39–40°C focused in the south and southwest.
- European model guidance led by the ECMWF signals a change in the large‑scale pattern around mid‑August that would end the extreme heat and usher in cooler, more unsettled conditions.
- Model runs disagree sharply on rainfall details so heavy, storm‑local downpours are possible in some scenarios—meteorologists warn of short‑period totals that could exceed 100 liters per square meter and trigger flash flooding.
- The long dry spell remains unresolved: record low rainfall in parts of Bavaria and very low Rhine levels are already limiting shipping and straining agriculture, with economists warning of wider supply and price effects.
- People should prepare for heat impacts on health, transport and river navigation now, and watch updated forecasts over the coming days because model divergence leaves open both sizable rain relief in some areas and the chance of renewed warm spells later in August.