Overview
- A joint study published on October 6, 2026, by the Berlin-Institut and the Wüstenrot-Stiftung rates all 400 German districts using 26 indicators to project national population falling from about 83.3 million to roughly 81.8 million by 2045.
- The study finds roughly two-thirds of districts will lose residents and that 42 of the 50 regions with the steepest declines are in East Germany, although shrinkage is also spreading beyond the former East–West border.
- Major cities and their surrounding districts such as Hamburg, Berlin, Leipzig, Dresden, and Munich are expected to grow, and Bavaria and Hamburg score especially high on the study’s future-viability ranking.
- Researchers warn the working-age population will drop about 4.7% nationally with declines of 12–18% in some states, and a separate Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft estimate points to a shortfall of about 723,000 skilled workers by 2029.
- Authors and the Wüstenrot-Stiftung urge policymakers to stop routine service withdrawal and to fund local, adaptive measures like multifunctional village shops, health kiosks, and community buses to keep services and social life viable in shrinking regions.