Overview
- Germany is back under a strong heat episode with widespread daytime highs above 30°C and western spots that can reach about 39°C, a pattern noted in coverage published on Tuesday.
- ECMWF ensemble forecasts increasingly point to a large‑scale shift around August 16–18 that could drop highs to roughly 17°C in the far north and about 25°C in the deep south by August 18 in some model members.
- The U.S. GFS model gives a different picture by keeping high‑summer warmth longer, with 28–34°C possible through about August 20 and a possible short rebound near August 23 before cooling resumes.
- Some ECMWF ensemble runs show intense, localized downpours exceeding 100 mm in a few hours that could trigger flash floods where dry soils force rapid runoff, but any rain would likely only partially ease the longer drought.
- The projected change ties to a polar low shifting toward Greenland and Canada whose cold air meeting the warm North Atlantic can spawn new lows headed for Europe, leaving timing and amounts uncertain and heat likely to return at times through the end of meteorological summer on August 31.