Overview
- Short‑range forecasts show an unstable weekend with sun, showers and renewed thunderstorm warnings issued by the Deutscher Wetterdienst on Thursday for parts of Hesse and other regions.
- Meteorologists say a renewed heat phase is increasingly likely to begin around next Tuesday or Wednesday, with temperatures climbing quickly after the brief unstable spell.
- Two main forecast scenarios are emerging: ECMWF‑type runs project widespread highs of about 35–38°C with some 40°C spots, while a single GFS run produces extreme outliers into the low‑ to mid‑40s that experts call unlikely.
- Very dry soils and an unusually warm Mediterranean would amplify any heat, increasing the chance of tropical nights, higher heat‑related illness and stress on water and infrastructure, while the heat margins could trigger intense storms.
- Forecasters stress probabilistic guidance only and quantify uncertainty beyond 7–10 days, with some analysts placing roughly a 46% chance that very hot southwest air reaches Germany, so residents should follow updates and heat warnings.