Overview
- The Deutscher Wetterdienst and multiple meteorologists say the highest risk window is Tuesday–Wednesday, with one model run specifically projecting a severe storm on Tuesday, 17 November, in an afternoon window around 15:00–16:00 CET.
- That Tuesday run shows a broad storm field with widespread gusts of 70–90 km/h, concentrated 100–115 km/h gusts in parts of the southwest and isolated gusts above 120 km/h in a few spots.
- DWD ensembles and operational forecasts also signal a wet week, typically 30–50 l/m² in 48–72 hours and locally 100–150 l/m² in west-facing orographic (stau) areas, raising the risk of higher river runoff and rising water levels.
- Forecasters warn of a multi-hazard mix: frost and glatteis (freezing rain) in the short term, heavy rain and river impacts during the stormy period, and a chance that narrow stingjet-like downdrafts could cause very localized extreme gusts.
- Probabilistic estimates from private meteorologists put the chance of a Randtief forming in the target period at roughly 40–50 percent, a 20–25 percent chance it brings ~100 km/h gusts to lowlands, and a 10–15 percent chance of isolated ≥120 km/h gusts, while the DWD stresses daily updates because small track shifts greatly change which regions are hit.