Overview
- By July 22 the drought remained widespread with river gauges at record low July levels and soils depleted after an unusually dry winter and spring.
- The German weather service forecasts a split pattern this week with cooler, rainy conditions mainly in the north and northeast and dry, sunny weather across much of the south and west.
- Numerical models diverge on late‑July weather: a US model scenario projects a Mediterranean heat dome that could push temperatures into the low‑to‑mid 30s Celsius with local highs to the high 30s, while the European model favors continued troughy, unsettled flow.
- Meteorologists and analysts say the brief, windy showers expected this week will give only limited soil recharge because much rain will evaporate or be removed by strong winds before penetrating deep moisture deficits.
- The drought is already affecting farmers and inland shipping, threatening major crop losses and higher food and feed costs, and outlooks into August point to a higher temperature baseline with increased thunderstorm risk though confidence falls after about 7–10 days.