Overview
- The Bundesagentur für Arbeit projects a roughly €10 billion financing shortfall for 2026, prompting ministers to seek near‑term savings from unemployment insurance.
- An IAB analysis shows capping maximum benefit duration for older claimants at 12 months could save about €2.4 billion a year and may reach over €4 billion when behavioral responses are included.
- Economists and IAB leaders warn those headline savings will be partly offset because reduced benefit months cut pension contributions and push some people into Grundsicherung, shifting costs to other budgets.
- Separately, the government is moving a pension reform that would end the 45‑years early‑retirement rule and Federal Labour Minister Bärbel Bas has promised a Vertrauensschutz for those close to retirement without specifying eligible cohorts or cut‑off rules.
- Legal and statutory changes will also affect claimants: courts have confirmed time‑limited disability pensions do not auto‑extend, and several EM‑Rente rules (longer credited periods, a higher Minijob threshold and a slightly raised taxable share) are set to take effect in 2027.