Overview

• German exports to the U.S. are projected to decline by 3.2% annually until 2035 due to rising protectionism and proposed tariffs, reducing export volume from €84 billion to €59 billion.
• The EU single market is identified as a significant growth opportunity, with exports to the ten largest EU markets expected to grow by 2.5% annually, potentially reaching €467 billion by 2035.
• Non-tariff trade barriers within the EU, such as differing regulations and tax rules, currently increase costs for German businesses by up to 44%, limiting immediate growth potential.
• Reducing these barriers could add 1% annual growth to EU exports by 2035, with even higher gains possible if barriers are fully eliminated.
• The machinery and electronics industries stand to gain the most from reduced EU trade barriers, while the automotive and chemical sectors would see smaller impacts.