Overview
- The DWD reported the 24–26 December span was the coldest Christmas period since 2010, with a low of −12.1°C in Harzgerode and hundreds of crashes including 565 in Berlin and a temporary bus halt in Potsdam.
- Operational GFS and ECMWF runs show a credible chance of snow in early January, including lowland totals near 10–12 cm in some areas and much larger amounts in the uplands and Alps.
- Model guidance remains split, with some ECMWF solutions pointing to a drier January while GFS favors a colder, snowier pattern, and forecasters note outcomes hinge on small Atlantic lows.
- Meteorologists offer differing interpretations, from Dominik Jung’s roughly 70:30 odds for a strong winter phase to Kai Zorn’s call for snow fronts from New Year and possible widespread accumulations, echoed by signals of a broader winter pattern.
- Regional stakes vary, with American‑model scenarios implying prolonged heavy snow and severe night frost in places such as NRW, while official updates also flag near‑term black ice risk on Sunday due to freezing drizzle and very cold nights.