Overview

• On August 4 Germany stationed five Eurofighter jets and about 150 Luftwaffe personnel at the Minsk Mazowiecki base to strengthen air surveillance on NATO’s eastern flank.
• Belarusian authorities confirmed on August 6 that initial Russian troop transports have begun arriving in Belarus to prepare for the mid-September Sapad-2025 exercise.
• Russian delegation head Julia Zhdanova says the exercise has been cut from 13,000 troops to roughly half that number and relocated deeper into Belarus away from NATO borders.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and regional leaders warn that Sapad-2025 could mask preparations for future offensives, citing the 2021 exercise’s link to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• Under the 2011 OSCE Vienna Document, drills exceeding 9,000 troops require advance notification and those over 13,000 must allow observers, prompting EU and NATO demands for transparency.