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Germany Braces for Late-Week Storm as Forecasters Weigh Northern Orkan Scenario

Conflicting model guidance leaves the storm’s track, intensity, surge risk uncertain.

Overview

  • DWD has active wind alerts in parts of Bavaria today while northern coastal regions prepare for a likely peak from Thursday night into Friday.
  • Germany’s high‑resolution ICON model signals orkan‑level gusts near the North Sea with simulations up to roughly 150 km/h and a Hamburg storm‑surge risk flagged by BSH for Friday morning.
  • Other guidance from GFS and ECMWF projects lower northern peaks of about 100–120 km/h with a reduced surge signal, reflecting sensitivity to the low’s exact track.
  • Regional forecasts highlight the highest wind risk for Schleswig‑Holstein, Hamburg, Bremen, and parts of Lower Saxony and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, with exposed high terrain and islands also vulnerable.
  • Authorities advise securing loose objects and avoiding forests and parks, and some forecasts indicate heavy rain in western uplands including the Black Forest, Saarland and the Eifel.