Overview
- Official microcensus-based data show about 13.4 million people will reach the statutory retirement age within 15 years, removing roughly 31% of today’s labour force.
- Younger cohorts are too small to offset the exits, with acute demand in skilled trades even as unemployment rises for some young graduates and AI reshapes job tasks.
- The government promotes more favourable earnings rules for retirees and higher senior labour participation is already visible, according to recent trends.
- Despite efforts to keep older people working, longer lifespans and widespread early retirement continue to increase the duration and cost of pension payouts; an IW study finds nearly half of boomers retire early.
- Analysts warn of heavier redistribution from young to old that could crowd out investment, and 2025 turnout skewed toward older voters raises concerns about the balance of generational interests.