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German States Face Tough Budget Adjustments as Revenue Forecasts Deteriorate

Bavaria, Berlin, Sachsen-Anhalt, and Baden-Württemberg respond to a projected €80 billion national tax shortfall with spending cuts, liquidity measures, and investment prioritization.

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Overview

  • The Arbeitskreis Steuerschätzungen projects an €80 billion revenue shortfall for Germany's federal, state, and local governments by 2029, exacerbating fiscal pressures.
  • Bavaria anticipates deficits of €900 million in 2025 and €1.5 billion in 2026, with Finance Minister Albert Füracker emphasizing spending discipline and limited scope for new debt.
  • Berlin plans to save €800 million in 2026 due to unforeseen expenditure increases, despite a slight revenue uptick in 2025, and urges federal infrastructure funding to be expedited.
  • Sachsen-Anhalt expects tax revenues to fall €596 million short of previous estimates in 2026 but will maintain its investment agenda, focusing on infrastructure and growth initiatives.
  • Baden-Württemberg will advance €3 billion in municipal payments to provide immediate liquidity relief, addressing urgent financial challenges in local governments.